Ekonomi Makin Lesu, Apakah Indonesia Bakal Jatuh ke Jurang Krisis? cnbcindonesia.com
Ekonomi nasional pada awal tahun alami pelemahan. Tantangan semakin berat, sebab pada level global tengah terjadi perang dagang yang dipicu kebijakan tarif Presiden Amerika Serikat Donald Trump.
Lesunya ekonomi apakah akan berujung pada resesi di Indonesia?
“Jadi, enggak usah khawatir dengan terjadinya resesi,” ungkap Anggota Dewan Ekonomi Nasional (DEN) Chatib Basri saat memberi Kuliah Umum di Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Indonesia (FEB UI) dikutip Kamis (15/5/2025).
Keyakinan Chatib ini bukan disebabkan ketahanan ekonomi domestik dari perlambatan ekonomi global akibat perang dagang, melainkan faktor “luck” yang disebabkan keterkaitan ekonomi RI dengan dunia sangat minim.
“Karena apa? dua hal, good policy response and good luck. Ini sebetulnya kita enggak design, tapi karena kita enggak kompetitif,” ucap Chatib.
“Kita enggak mampu, enggak kompetitif, less integrated, akibatnya kita enggak terlalu kena banyak di dalam konteks global ini,” tegas mantan menteri keuangan RI periode 2013-2024 itu.
Chatib menjelaskan, tidak terlalu terintegrasinya ekonomi Indonesia dengan global ini tercermin dari besaran porsi ekspor terhadap produk domestik bruto (PDB) Indonesia yang minim dibanding Vietnam, Singapura, ataupun Thailand.
Rasio ekspor Singapura terhadap PDB nya kata Chatib bisa mencapai 180%, Vietnam 79%, dan Thailand bisa sekitar 60%. Adapun Indonesia hanya berada di kisaran 25%.
“Jadi, kalian jangan kaget kalau pertumbuhan ekonomi tahun ini Indonesia akan lebih tinggi dibandingkan Vietnam dibandingkan dengan Singapura. Simply karena soal rasio dari ekspor terhadap GDP-nya yang relatif kecil,” ucap Chatib.
Dana Moneter Internasional atau IMF juga telah memperkirakan kondisi yang serupa dengan Chatib. Dalam forecast terbarunya yang termaktub dalam World Economic Outlook (WEO) edisi April 2025, IMF memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia memang akan merosot ke leve 4,7% pada 2025-2026.
Proyeksi itu merevisi ke bawah perkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi sebelumnya dalam WEF edisi Januari 2025. Saat itu, IMF memprediksi ekonomi RI masih bisa tumbuh sebesar 5,1% pada tahun ini dan 2026.
Namun, IMF memperkirakan, ekonomi Vietnam akan tumbuh lebih lambat dari Indonesia ke depan akibat perang dagang. IMF memperkirakan, ekonomi Vietnam drop menjadi hanya akan tumbuh 5,2% pada 2025 dari proyeksi realisasi pada 2024 yang tumbuh 7,1%.
Efek pengenaan tarif perdagangan oleh AS akan terus memperdalam laju perlambatan ekonomi Vietnam hingga 2026 menjadi hanya akan tumbuh 4% menurut IMF, jauh di bawah RI.
Namun, penting dicatat, saat aktivitas ekonomi dunia mengalami pemulihan pertumbuhan nantinya, minimnya keterkaitan ekonomi Indonesia terhadap global akan membuat pertumbuhan ekonominya akan lebih lambat pulihnya ketimbang negara yang memiliki keterkaitan tinggi dengan global. Sebab, ekspor yang menjadi salah satu komponen penopang PDB tidak akan ikut terdongkrak dari pemulihan ekonomi.
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